Free Ratings Monday 26 February 2018

Before you know it, the weekend’s gone and it’s Monday.  How come Monday is so far from Friday, yet Friday is so close to Monday.

So while you’re thinking about that philosophical question, here’s the best reason I know to love Mondays – free ratings every Monday with the Formpro Ratings.

And this week, we have not one but two meetings for you.  Auckland kicked off at midday and Palmerston North joins the action just after 2.00.

David

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Bet of the Day – Race 8 – Clover Bubba (3)

Bubba’s bubble burst after we labelled it following his outstanding first up win in NZ.  Second start, carrying the burden of our money, he didn’t show the same spark after appearing to have every chance.  He then went up to Cambridge and completely bombed the start.

So last start at Hatrick was a bit of a line in the sand.  This time, he jumped and never looked like losing. rating an impressive 70.  Both his wins in NZ have rated 70 or better and only three in this field have rated over 60 at any time in a mid-distance race.

There looks to be a bit of early speed in box 1 but Take Action is more like inaction at the start so that should give Bubba a little bit of latitude at the start.

As always, a lot will come down to the start – if he jumps like he can and has his mind on the game, the $2 on offer will be good money.

For those that want a little more value (and risk), Bigtime Monty (1) in the following race looks a good bet on paper.  He won well from box 1 on Friday night when second rated by the predictor and paid a very generous $10.  On form, he looks a good bet but the flag has to be that this is his third start in 5 days.  If he has enough left in the tank he’s good enough to take this out but as I noted there has to be a flag about three starts in 5 days.

Another week when we’ll just have to put the cigars away.  Bubba just gave Sam too much of a head start and to be fair never looked like running him down, especially on the heavy track.  After two weeks of just close but no cigars, we’ll be trying even harder next week to get the bookies cowering in the corner.

Lay of the Day – PN Race 4 –  Arden Emgrand (6)

Before we dive into the analysis, a reminder of the how finding a losing favourite can help.

We know from both anecdotal and more formal research that punters tend to overbet favourites in the greyhounds.  So it’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy – the favourite attracts more bets and that often suggest to other punters that they should follow the money.

On the other hand, there is a practical element to find a lay – if we think that a favoured dog (or horse) is less likely to win that the bookies suggest, that almost certainly creates more value elsewhere.

And that’s the case in this race.  Arden Emgrand is a loose favourite at $3 but in my book (pun intended!) that’s too short.  Admittedly, he’s only had two starts in NZ but both times he’s got back from similar draws and tempted fate.  He was good enough in those races to come from behind midfield but is up in class today.  Both his times rated around 40 and all bar 2 runners have run achieved better ratings in their last 6 starts.

You could make a solid argument for any 5 of the runners but two that appeal are Kirkham Coby (3) and a favourite of this column, Cawbourne Brandy (7).

Kirkham Coby looks likely to get on the pace from with perhaps Doosh in box 1 showing up early.  He downgraded last start from C4 and immediately turned his form around.

I’ve named Cawbourne Brandy the “Foxton Flyer” because he uses so much of the track.  His last four starts have been in C4 or better so today’s race is a significant drop in class.  The race before that was a C3 at Hatrick and he generally runs better at Manawatu.  He’s drawn to suit in box 7.  It’s always heart in the mouth stuff with wide runners because they run so much further but he’s run the times and has a great record over the course and distance – 4 wins and a placing from 9 starts.

For exotics, I would throw Stole Me Car in the mix but it’s a very wide open race.  Lids are up at 2.57.

Close again.  The bad news – Arden Emgrand jumped the best he’s jumped in NZ and put himself right in the race.  That clearly changed things.  The good news was that our two runners filled the minor places so the trifecta was easily found and paid nicely at $93 and the first 4 ($380) wasn’t hard to find either.  I also thought the place money on Brandy was extremely generous too.  Back again for our bet of the day in race 8.