Free ratings 19 February 2018

*** 12.15 Updated with bet of the day and lay of the day. ***

10,080.  That’s the number … in minutes since we last here with our guaranteed 100% free ratings.  Every Monday!!  So I suppose you could say there’s only another 10,080 minutes since we do it again!

While that may be true, in the meantime we have winners to find.  Not a lot of value the last couple of weeks but we for the last couple of weeks we’ve managed to get our bet of the day and lay of the day to do the right things.

David

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Bet of the Day – Race 6 – Cawbourne Mezza (1)

The bookies mark this as a two dog race between Cawbourne Mezza (1) and Spare Some Time (7).  The ratings agree these two rate well but also throw Breeze Attack (8) and Bigtime Ottey (4) into the mix.

There’s a number of factors in favour of Cawboure Mezza.  The red rug helps as does the improved draw.  Mezza knows he way around a race track – this is his 92nd start.  Four starts back she was up against C5 dogs so again C3/4 helps although we should also note the Spare Some Time is downgrading for this race.

I think the winning of this race will be at the start.  The speed map shows that Mezza should get a fairly uncontested look at the lure and the rail and there isn’t much pressure from the boxes outside her.

There is more speed outside in boxes 6-8 which means that these dogs could end up getting in a big of a tangle which naturally will help out chances (hopefully) sailing along lonely out in front.  There’s  real risk that Spare Some Time in box 7 could get squeezed by the runners either side.

Another point worth noting is that Spare Some Time drops back to the sprint distance today.  He’s only run the 375m twice in the last year and hasn’t won over 375 since February last year.

As we know, the start is always critical in greyhound racing and the speed maps says that this is Cawbourne Mezza’s race to lose.  No dog is unbeatable but $2.70 is not bad money for a dog in box 1 with the ability to use it.

Near enough is not quite good enough.  The race panned out pretty much to the script but Spare Some Time showed his class in the end and came home the stronger.  Back again after race 10 to see if it’s a case of Tears or cheers.

Lay of the Day – Race 10 – Bigtime Tears (6)

I tossed over this one big time – either Lily or Tears.  I suppose there’s always a great chance my selections will end in tears so that’s the way I’ve gone.

A couple of weeks ago, Bigtime Tears would have been close to bet of the day at that price and the form she’s in.  In January, she won four straight starts never rating less than 60.  Since then she hasn’t won a race albeit up in class but more significantly she hasn’t rated over 60 once.  She’s honest, she clearly tries but last start she had a pretty much uncontested lead but got run down by Bigtime Welldone.  BWD has a decent closing sectional but she was still run down and in a time slower than she has run.

The upside is that she has decent box speed and perhaps last start hinted at a return to form.

Of the others, Bigtime Welldone has been racing consistently well and if he can get up close enough is good enough.  Bigtime Coffee ran well last week from a similar wide draw although he doesn’t have a great record form out wide.  Bigtime Craig (1) and Bigtime Mike (3) look to be the beneficiaries of the draw and could put themselves right in this, especially if there’s trouble further out wide.

If Bigtime Welldone can get a decent start, he looks the likely danger.  With Take Action also slow, he may find a little pocket in behind the leaders which should suit his racing pattern and he showed on Friday he can motor home if he puts himself in the race.

Things were made a little easier after Bigtime Welldone was … well, done at the start.  Tears showed her early box speed and showed enough kick to keep out Bigtime Craig.  Will be interested to see the sectionals.  So we did the double this week … but double dose of close but not close enough.

Other thoughts

Bigtime Lily (R11) has been a sectional standout of the Ratings for months.  She has the clear ability to win today but I don’t see the value in $2 – her starts have been better but she was losing C2 races through slow starts a couple of weeks ago.  I’d back her with you money but from an inside draw I think she’s a risk but she can still win this.

In the card game 500, I think we’d call this the misere round!