Free ratings 12 February 2018

Is it Monday already?

At least that means there’s free ratings to the PN Greyhounds.

Our recommended bets will be up later this morning so check back soon.

David

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Bet of the Day – Race 9 – Bigtime Logan (8)

Bigtime Logan is one of those dogs who has been popping up in the sectionals which has pointed to a win or two, especially at C1.

He’s won his last two races in C1 class and with the vagaries of the nominations system, he gets a third crack at them today.

In the past, slow starts have been costing him but he’s got away well the last two starts.  There looks to be no pace in this race and it’s quite a surprise to see Logan actually come up as the box speed pick – it simply reinforces how slow the others are likely to be at the start.  Even if he takes a few strides to get into action, the dog in box 7 is likely to be even slower.

The two likely threats to Logan are drawn in boxes 5 and 6 so potentially they may get into a duel allowing Logan to swoop around the outside.

Logan has the red ink in his favour – box speed, last start rating, best track rating.  He’s also the most consistent – from 4 starts course and distance, he’s had a win and two places.

At $2.70FF, there’s a little value – I rate him at $2.50 in this field.

Pretty much to the script.  A little slow away but moved around the field and one of the two likely threats identified (the dog in yellow) kept him honest but in the end a win is a win.  He was heavily punted too – starting at $1.90 on FF and $2.10 on the tote.

Lay of the Day – Race 4 – Bigtime Bev (8)

Let’s get something clear Bev.  There’s nothing personal!

We had BT Bev as our lay of the day where she last started.  Or didn’t start as the case may be – the “T” in her form line stands for “turned” ie she stayed in her box trying to get out the back, not the front.

While that may be another factor, there looks to be a number of reasons why Bev isn’t a great bet even at the generous $3 the bookies are currently offering.

On paper she has a reasonable record from box 8 (2 starts, 1 win – in C1).  However, if we dig deeper we see that in 10 starts from box 6 or wider, she has just the one win and one placing.  The plus is that her box speed may allow her to escape the worst of any buffering plus she is downgrading.

The biggest concern is that she simply hasn’t been running the times.  She’s only once rated above 40 in her last 6 starts, and that was 6 starts ago.  Half the field have rated better than her across their last 6 starts.  And her times for Palmerston North don’t stand out either.

I think the value runner is in box 3, Little Scamp.  While normally I would be hestitate to back a dog up in class against a dog coming down in class, Little Scamp has been churning out consistent times – and wins – over the 375m at Palmerston North.  She’s rated near enough to 40 or better 4 times out of her last 5 starts.  She’s not the fastest away but the speed map shows there’s not a lot of pace in box 2 or 4.  Her closing sectional last week was in the top 10 for the day, not a bad effort at all.  So unless she strikes trouble at the start, she can run the times that will test Bev and the rest of this field.

Interesting,  Bev did exactly what the speed map said she could do – she jumped and lead.  But as the analysis showed, compared to the rest of the field, she hadn’t run the times and it was no surprise to see her get run down and end up in fourth.  Given the start, you’d have to be pretty disappointed with that result.  Conversely, our best pick Little Scamp blew the start to smithereens but showed the sectionals we expected to end up third.  With a better start, she was right in this but that’s racing.  So another favourite bites the dust and our run continues with the Lay of the Day.

Updates

Today, I’ll update the two races from on course.

Good punting!

David

 

2018-02-12T09:34:55+00:00