There’s a number of short priced favourites running around today and the three I like the most are Clover Colin (race 1), Clover Bubba (race 2) and our perennial selection, Bigtime Lily.
I’m happy to go with Lily one more time. She’s won two races in a row now so she’s clearly fighting fit and keen – last start she even picked the jump! However, she’s still racing in C2 class after those two wins while most of the rest are dogs she’s had the measure of the last week or two.
She’s in the pink rug (8) today but I prefer her out wide – from the outside two boxes, she’s 2 wins from 3 starts. If she misses away, she has the power from her closing sectionals to go around them while we’ve seen her panic a little from the inside draws with a slow start and move out and into trouble.
She opened at $1.95 but the $1.80 is fair value.
She got pretty skinny at $1.70 but in the end it was a very professional display. Having the sectionals really helps – with a dog like Lily once she started and made the front we were pretty confident she would hang on although Bigtime Coffee was resolute in the chase. More than a few multis would have run through Bubba in race 2 so we will be back again to give the bookies a bit of a fright another day.
Clover Bubba (Race 2 – no 7) ran an absolutely scorching closing sectional and looks the goods. At $2 he was excellent value but the bookies had their morning coffee and at $1.70 not so much.
Without any trouble, he looks a moral based on last week’s effort. However, he was a fraction slow to get into his work before the after burners kicked in. That’s the one flag for me coupled with what looks like a stronger field on paper.
Little Scamp, Bigtime Buster and in particular Lucha all ran strong opening sectionals so Bubba will have to run them down.
Another win today will underline his talent but happy to watch him run around today at $1.70.
Bubba looked the bet but as we said in the analysis he faced a tougher field today and runners who had shown up last week. Close but no cigar for Bubba. The bookies escape a decent flogging.
Other value bets
With the bookies turning the tap off on the two best bets (Clover Bubba into $1.65 from $2, Bigtime Lily into $1.70 after opening at $1.95) let’s see if we can find some value in other races.
Race 7 – Going back to the well again but no reason You’re The Best (6) can’t repeat – great value at $7 and $2. Clearly there were reasons and to make matters worse, our old mate Cawbourne Brandy won and paid $15. That helped but we are yet to hit our straps after a decent start in race 1.
Race 14 – Apricity (5) second start back after a break. Gets back but for once is in a field where there’s almost no pace. She could therefore find herself a lot handier than normal and has a decent closing sectional. It’s not a great field to be fair and the $3 looks reasonable money. Just got too far back and came home 3 strides to 1 but just gave the winner too much of a start.
Race 15 – Kinetic Shadow (4) maps to lead and ran a fast opening sectional last week. Generally gets the staggers late in the race but if you get in front, the others still have to get past. The favourite has drawn box 1 but is likely to be slow away. Kinetic Shadow is paying $4.50 in what looks like a two dog race. Ace Star (5) could be another to show up in the early rush in what looks on paper a pretty weak race. We had to wait until the end of the day to get a nice collect but Kinetic Shadow didn’t let us down and this time didn’t show any sign of the staggers. Ace Star played his part and set up a couple of nice exotics.
Lay of the Day – Race 4 – Bigtime Sienna (8)
So, yes a Big Time lay of the day.
Bigtime Sienna (8) has – at least on paper – the best rating for track and distance. However, that rating carries a significant asterix being recorded on 15 January when the track was lightning fast.
That was Sienna’s one show of form on the track – she’s had just 1 win from 5 starts at Manawatu. Apart from that exception, she’s only rated 50 or better twice and never at Manawatu. Her second best rating here is just 30 which underlines why I think she is too short.
She has yet to win from box 8 after two starts and the speed map shows that Ndora in box 7 will step away quickly and if nothing else keep Sienna out wide. Inside, the two other favoured runners look to have a clear passage ahead of him.
I like Stole Me Car (2) to provide a bit more value. Compared to Sienna, he’s won 7 of 15 starts over today’s distance at Manawatu. Forget his last start at Wanganui where he drew wide – he doesn’t have a great record out wide. However, last week from a similar draw he ran very solid sectionals, setting up the win with a slick 5.13. He’s likely to have no pressure either inside or outside so gets a chance from box 2 to get on the lure and make the others run him down.
They couldn’t do it last week – and Sienna was in the field – and I don’t think they will this week.
Rated price $2.80 currently paying $4FF.
On the positive, we kept up with our record of spotting a favourite to be beaten. Bigtime Sienna was a really poor bet for a favourite and punters never got a run. Stole Me Car missed the jump but was fairly beaten. Fear the Beard was rated a close third on the Predictor too.
Big Time – the video
Good punting and we’ll be back during the day to update our fate!