Selections Palmerston North Greys 30 January 2018

It’s been double delight this week with FREE ratings yesterday and today.  As will everything else, we can blame Auckland!

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Here’s our main selections for today’s races at Palmerston North.

Bet of the Day – Race 6 – Bigtime Lily (5)

We’ve had a bit of success going back to dogs who we’ve previously had as bet of the day.  Wetchester springs to mind – we has won for us twice and if I’d been a little more brave, he would have won a third time.

Bigtime Lily owes us.  She has been running closing sectionals that tell us she can compete with the C4 and C5 dogs but has been making a mess of the starts.  A big chunk of this is because she likes a bit of track so doesn’t head in towards the rail.  Consequently, the last couple of races she’s had problems at the starts trying to move out.

Today she gets box 5 which should suit her fine, especially with just seven starters.  The early pace looks to be on the inside or the outside runner.  The speed map suggests Lily is in the middle of the dogs likely to be slowest away so she should be able to find her paws and find some clear air in the middle of the track where she likes it.

With just an average start, she should be winning this … but we said this before!  If you’re looking for a bit of cover or value in the exotics, I think Bigtime Coffee is worth a shot (yes, intended!) – he’s up in class but his opening sectional last week would definitely make him competitive from box 2.

I rate Bigtime Lily as a $2.10 chance in the 7 horse field so the bookies aren’t missing her either!

Never in doubt.  OK, she’s not one of the best starters and she gave us a little bit of a heart murmur when she slipped back after a reasonable start.  However, the big difference this week as we expected was that she was happy where she was and didn’t go looking for any trouble.  From her closing sectionals, we knew she had the wheels to catch up and so it proved.  Now let’s see if Opawa Lyon can round the day off.

Other bets worth looking at:

R13 Opawa Lyon – based on last week’s effort and the kind draw, he wins this but you won’t get rich – the multi with Lily returns for $40 for every $10. Clever dog.  In league players would have been cited for those types of tackles but he found his feet and once again the sectionals told us he could haul in the leader.  A nice way to end the day and the multi was excellent value.

R8 Allegro Beaty is excellent each way value at $7FF.  Missed the jump and paddled from then.

Lay of the Day – Race  3 – Bigtime Bev (3)

There’s a number of short priced favourites and one or more is almost certain to get beaten but they all have upsides as well.

So while the favourite is paying (for the lay of a day) at outrageous $4.00, I still think there’s some value to be found in this race.

The key is the start.  Box 2 is our old mate Cawbourne Brandy – he runs so wide, I’ve given him the moniker of the Foxton Flash.  Not surprisingly, he’s never won in box 2!  Bigtime Bev is drawn in box 3 and she will also head right or at least for the middle of the track but have Brandy putting pressure on the outside.  In box 4 Cawbourne Symsy is likely to hold his line or head left so that is a major flag for the two dogs inside.  To add to the intrigue, Polly the Dolly (box 6) and Viva La Vixen (5) won’t head left and potentially could make it difficult for the outside runners.

The one dog we haven’t mentioned is Doosh sitting there quietly in the red rug minding his own business.  With all the action outside, he could get a charmed run and has great box 1 starts, has the best last start rating, and has one of the two best ratings over the last 90 days.  He’s another who won’t head left but perhaps not to the extent of the the dog on his outside.

I’d look at a couple of options to beat the favourite, both paying great value.  If Doosh gets a clean run and there’s the trouble we expect, then he’s well over the odds, especially in box 1.  The other dog I think is well over the odds is You’re the Best from box 7.  With so many runners heading right, he might have a bit to a job to cross them.  However, the speed maps suggests he’s a chance to do so and even though he’s upgrading, he’s in back in great form.

Wow.  Where to start after that race.  As it turned out, the result went very much to one of the two scripts we suggested.  The race was a complete mess as we predicted and the two dogs to jump well avoided the worst.  Doosh disappointed and once he was slow away it was no show.  Mind you, you still had more of a show than anyone who backed Bigtime Bev.  You’re the Best did cross them and once Cawbourne Brandy indicated right and took off for Foxton, You’re the Best was lonely out in front.  The $7.40 on the tote was great value and assuming you’d taken both runners a return of $3.70-$4.10 for every dollar invested.  Nice.

I’ll update the selections after each of the profiled races.

Good punting!

David

 

2018-01-30T11:22:19+00:00