Stat’s Incredible #2 – Group One Telegraph 1200m
This week, the sprinters steal the spotlight with a top field assembled for the Group One Telegraph at Trentham on Saturday, 20 January.
With the enormous shadow cast by the Melbourne Cup and the mystique of the 3200 distance, the sprinters don’t often get recognition they deserve.
We’ve done the numbers so you don’t have to so let’s see what we’ve found. We’ve looked at all Telegraphs since 2011 and it makes for some fascinating reading.
OK, let’s save everyone a lot of time. Rather than following the tote as a guide and back the favourites, it would be smart to look at the tote and NOT back the supported runners!
Not a single favourite has won in the time period we’ve examined although Guiseppina was second favourite back in 2012 and paid $4.50. Even allowing for that short priced winner, the winner has paid an average of almost $29! Adventator in 2016 paid over $80 while anyone who backed Signify and got back almost $50 last year wouldn’t have been complaining.0
You hear a lot of comments about the importance of the barrier draw but the stats (while limited) simply don’t back it up.
Not one winner since 2011 has drawn inside barrier 4 while five of the seven winners have drawn 10 or worse.
Keep in mind that this race often attracts a capacity field of 18 starters so it’s not unreasonable to think that runners can get trapped on the rails and lack racing room. On the upside, you could do worse than look at the outside half of the field and see where there’s some value.
Girls vs Boys
The stats are interesting for female vs male runners – seven races, three female winners and four male winners.
As for the female jocks, it all started well for the female jockeys with Sam Spratt winning onboard one of her favourite horses, Mufhasha, back in 2011. Since then, it’s been boy power every year.
Interestingly, in the seven races we have looked at, no jockey has had more than one success.
North versus South …
OK, technically this is north versus south versus the Central Districts and here’s no clear winner here.
The north which has the dominant numbers of horses racing has trainied 3 winners while the south and CD have both trainer two. The average win dividend of the southern winners has been $30 and both southern winners have been mares.
History Never Repeats
Now’s not the time to discuss the merits of Split Enz superb catalogue but we have a couple of possible sceanrios where history could very well repeat.
Racha Cuneen will be trying his best to go back to back on board Signify (3). She’s drawn the outside alley but that was no barrier (pun intended) to the filly Guiseppina back in 2012.
Sacred Star (9) brained the field back in 2015 and will trying for a repeat this year. He’s drawn barrier 16.
Of the jockeys, Chris Johnson on Starvoia (16) and OP Bosson aboard Heroic Valour (12) will both be seeking their third wins.
… Race History
An a hat tip to the Wellington Racing Club for a dedicated page to the history of the results of this great race:
And while we are in a positive mood, an acknowledgement to J & N Berkett have been the sponsors of this race from 2011.
The race starts at 3.57 Saturday: