Bob Geldof was wrong!  I like Mondays – Mondays means races at the Palmerston Greyhounds and THAT means free ratings.

*** Updated with bet of the day and lay of the day ***

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Bet of the Day – R10 Bigtime Lily (2)

Two starts back, Bigtime Lily won a C1 in a time that on the day would have made her competitive in the C5 race.  Her closing sectional was simply outstanding.

Last start, she missed away from box 6 before making ground late and running second.

So the major flag is the starts and generally that’s something I prefer not to risk.  However, from box 2 she should get a better look at the lure while there simply isn’t a lot of box speed in this race.  The dog in box one is slower than the first week back at the office after Christmas while the likely leader Bigtime Blast isn’t a railer.  So that should do two things – create space for Lily on the inside and potentially hold the other dogs out wide.

With her ability to run top sectionals with a decent run, Bigtime Lily is pretty good value at $3FF.  I rate her at $2.50.

View race 10 ratings

That’s put a stop to the run.  Lily simply missed the start and once she’s worked through the traffic problems gave the winner too much of a start.  The speed map for once didn’t help – the predicted speed didn’t come from Bigtime Blast either.  Back again for race 14.

Lay of the Day – R14 Bigtime Kylie (8)

To be fair to the bookies, you can see why they have installed her as favourite but for mine, the $2FF is far too short.

Yes, she has won 2 of her last 6 races and the entire field has only won 3 races in the same period!  She does look like the likely leader and she did win well at her last start.

On the other hand, she has yet to run any standout times and is just out of C0.  The other main chance Cawbourne Brandy was running around in C3 races in October and actually ran second in a C2 race last starting running out noms.

I would mark them the other way around and have Cawbourne Brandy as the favourite.  The only box speed in the race is from the outside three boxes.  Brandy loves the outside boxes and he won a similar type of race back in December.  In a way, it would be best for him to be a stride or two behind the leaders then he can get the GPS out and find a way to the winning post via Foxton … he will cover more ground than the rest but he’s boxed to suit today.

Bigtime Kylie is not without her chances in this field but it looks like Brandy snaps all round.

View race 14 ratings

There’s been more seconds today than in a boxing match but we managed to get a result to go to script.  People in Foxton are still wondering what that flash was but once Brandy jumped it was going to be tough for Kylie.  Funny that, Kylie beaten by one of her neighbours.  Great money which I suppose is the point of finding short priced favourites that can be knocked off.

Back again next Monday.


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