Free Ratings – Monday

Santa has well and truly gone but we dish out the gifts every week with free ratings to the Palmerston North greyhounds.  *** Updated at 10.40 with our bet of the day and lay of the day ***

We’re under a bit of pressure now with the run we’ve had especially the bets of the day.  We understand our readership has doubled so both of you will be keen to see our selections for this week!

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Bet of the Day – R15 – Cawbourne Lick (3)

Once again we’re going to have to wait till the last race for the bet of the day.

I think it’s a race with two main chances and you can work your bets around the two runners.  Being the last leg of place 6, quaddies, and trebles gives some scope as well.

Cawborne Lick ran the fifth best closing sectional for the 375m last week, just being pipped by our bet of the day.  He must have got the shock of his life to have led – the last time was way back in July!  So while he doesn’t have blistering box speed, there’s not a lot in this race and the dogs either side of box 3 are likely to be even slower away.  If he can run a sectional like last week with a decent start, he wins.

The ultimate irony is the one dog that could benefit from the lack of box speed is Culvie Den – he seems to be the pacesetter by default.  He almost hung on last week when we had him to upset our lay of the day so if Cawbourne Lick does strike problems, he would be the one other dog I’d want on my quaddie or place 6 ticket.  He’s got undoubted box speed but simply hasn’t been strong enough when it matters.

For trifectas, Cawborne Muzza and Stole Me Car are obvious candidates while it’s the type of race where Thrilling Stan could easily pop up and spice up the exotics.

Well, that deals with the Curse well and truly.  We all got another shock when The Lick almost lead out the second week in a row!  But with a clear view of the lure and the confidence that came from his last start closing sectional, it ended up being a pretty comfortable result in the end.  Amazing value given the form around his last start second with the results earlier in the day.

Ratings for race 15 >>

Lay of the day – R4 – Bigtime Narelle (6)

No messing around this week – we’re going to take on the picket fence form line in R4.

Bigtime Narelle in the green rug has been winning for fun – she’s won her last four in a row and the TAB runner comments believe she can easily cope with the rise in class.

Therein lies the key to this race – for starters, she’s up in class.  Three starts back she was winning a C1 race while Doosh for one has just escaped C4 class two starts back.  So first time up against C3 class has to be a flag.

The other key is the box and her starting pattern.  She tends to veer left out of the boxes and drawn 6 is no help.  Bigtime Ransom in 7 looks to have early speed and that could make things even more difficult if he crosses.  We’ve seen time and again dogs getting away with moderate starts in C1 and C2 but as they climb the grades it gets tougher.

Certainly, her last four starts have been promising and if she could run to that level she’s right in this race.  However, all of those four starts have been box 3 or closer in or last start box 8 where she avoided any trouble.  Her ratings from boxes 4-7 have been pretty dire so that is another major flag.

For me, the $2 is too short.  Ironically, one of the dogs who could be favoured by the way the race is run is Bigtime George in box 8 who won’t mind the space – George was our lay of the day last week.  His swooping run for a commanding 1 inch victory last week still gives me nightmares but he can help us out here.

Other runners who appear to have box speed to put themselves in the race are Bigtime Bev and Doosh.

All is forgiven Bigtime George!!  It’s not often the race pans out 100% to script – perhaps the only thing we missed was the favourite falling but we clearly weren’t confident she would find room and she didn’t.  The trifecta was a bonus too and George paid ridiculous money on the tote – $4.20.  Amazingly, Bigstar Narelle went out on the tote at $1.90.  She’s a good dog and with a kinder draw she could have featured but that was crazy money given the risks we highlighted above.

That big multi is back to haunt us on the last race!

Ratings for race 4 >>

As Neil says, enjoy the ride – there’s bound to be some turbulence (or in Palmerston North’s case, turbo-lence) along the way.

Good punting

 

David

 

 

David

2018-01-07T23:26:08+00:00