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Speed Maps By the Numbers – Part 3

Posted: December 25, 2017 at 6:35 pm   /   by   /   comments (2)

This is the THIRD post in our series on speed maps.  If you aren’t familiar with speed maps or the common terms, check out the second post in the series.

Speed Map Positions – By the Numbers

We introduced the common language used to describe speed maps.

Let’s now see what the numbers tell us.  For a start, lets look at how closely our data matches our expected spread of runners.  And as usual, we don’t do things by halves – this is based on 92,000 records (and it grows by around 100+ per day).

Not surprisingly, the stats very closely align to the expected spread of runners.

39% of runners are forward of midfield (lead, trail, handy), 27% are midfield, leaving 34% as the back markers.

Wins by Speed Map Position

From our data, 11% of runners are recorded leading. You would reasonably expect a similar number of runners – give or take – to win.

From our data (remember this is nearly 100,000 starts) 18% of winners were leaders.

At the other end of the scale, 17% of runners – nearly 1 in 5 – settled well back yet just 11% of winners are from this subset.

You might recall our three high level categories – forward, midfield, back.  Here’s the summary for these categories – label, starts, wins.

Forward 39% 51%
Midfield 27% 24%
Back 34% 26%
Total 100% 100%

As you can see, over half of all winners are positioned forward of midfield.

And finally here’s the full comparison of starters to winners for all positions in our speed maps (number of wins in orange, number of starts in blue).

Summary

As the data shows, there is a clear correlation between position in race and chance of winning.  Or to put it in simple terms, runners forward of midfield are statistically more likely to win than other runners.  And of particular note, horses that prefer to settle well back have a distinctly worse chance of winning.

In the next posts, we’ll drill further into the data and see if distance, class, or track conditions makes a difference.

David

Comments (2)

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  • January 30, 2018 at 8:00 pm Erin

    Useful information, I’m looking forward to the remaining Parts.

    • February 1, 2018 at 7:34 am David

      Thanks Erin I hope to have the next couple of posts over the next week or two.