Christmas Eve Special – Cambridge Dogs
We normally have free access to the Formpro Ratings on Mondays but seeing there’s no race on Monday for some reason, we’ll bring it a day forward.
We generally try and find a winner and we also like to find a Lay of the Day. Finding a short-priced dog that is likely to lose is a good way to find value for the greys and especially so if you like the exotics.
Also note that there is one meeting but two TAB codes with all racing at Cambridge – the early meeting is meeting M3 while the second meeting is M9.
Free Access From Saturday 9PM
PS Don’t tell the boss but with the first race at 11 am and likely to feature the bet of the day, you can access any time from 9PM on Saturday.
User name – formpro
Password – speed
Bet of the Day – M3 R1 – Opawa Loyal (3)
We’re going very early with our bet of the day.
Cambridge can be a little tricky to predict as dogs race more frequently on shorter tracks. Cambridge is a “horse-shoe” or two turn track (for almost all races at least).
Consequently, I like to see runners with proven form at Cambridge. Opawa Loyal fits that description – 4 starts for 1 win and two placings over the 375m. He also has the best rating in the field for course and distance.
The start could be competitive but he has shown the drive and smarts to work his way through runners. He’s got a good record from the middle boxes and has only drawn inside box 3 once. More so, this is the closest to the rail he’s been in six starts.
He is up in class but three starts back here he won a C1 and his closing sectional was only bettered by four dogs racing at C4 and C5 level. A repeat of that will do the trick nicely.
Update – the dog in the red rug (how appropriate is that!) has been late scratched so effectively bringing Opawa Loyal into box 2. The $2.80 is still good value.
Rated price $2.50 – currently $3.00FF.
Just how you want them to win. Once he jumped and found the lead, we were on our way to collect. Great start to the day.
Lay of the Day – M9 R3 – Ridin’ Shotgun (7)
Perhaps the single most significant differentiator between the ratings and “normal” form analysis is that the ratings measure performance while form simply represents results. The two aren’t necessarily the same.
I suspect Riding Shotgun will attract support simply because of his picket fence form. After all a win is a win isn’t it? He’s won 9 of his 11 starts – some of us are still receiving counselling due to his short nose which cost him the Formpro Amazing Chase!
However there’s a number of reasons he’s not the best bet today.
For a start, he’s up in class – today’s race sees him up against the big boys and girls while RS is just four starts out of C1. His box speed stats look ok on paper but again he’s going to be up against dogs with much superior box speed. And apart from the match race in the Amazing Chase, he’s never led out. So from box 7 up in class it’s hard to see him leading and even harder to see him win.
His ratings show he’s going to win races at C5 level but this is is first crack at the big ones and it’s a competitive heat. Can win but too short for my liking at the bookies’ price.
Rated price $5 – currently $3.40FF.
Well that went completely to script. The money was still coming for Ridin’ Shotgun and he ended up strongly supported. However, he was pretty much the last away and while he made some impressive ground with albeit a favourable run, he was never going to win.