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Bet of the Day – Race 15 – Fear the Beard (1)

Last week, the stats strongly suggested Kirkham Coby was well paying massive overs and we got a great price.

It’s a tough gig trying to repeat that and the confidence levels aren’t as high.

However, Fear the Beard looks a nice bet in the (un)lucky last.

The improved box draw definitely helps – last four starts, he’s drawn 4th or wider.  He’s still managed to get close to the lead so the improved draw suggests he can land on or close to the lead.  The only other runner who has consistently challenged for the lead is Totes out wide.

It’s not the strongest field but Fear the Beard has the top four closing sectionals for course and distance in the last 90 days.  Likewise, his ratings are strong compared to the rest of this field.

So Fear the Beard looks a good bet especially from box 1.  If you are an E/W punter, rather than backing FTB to place, you might be better off backing Totes and/or Uno Brent to win as savers.  They look the likely three in this race so you could also work your exotics.

On paper it looks a race in three and with a number of factors in Fear the Beard’s favour, the $3FF looks good value.

The racing gods got their own back.  Never in the hunt today.  Jumped ok but got squeezed on the inside and went back.  Speaking of which, we’ll be back again next week for free ratings at Palmerston North next Monday.

Lay of the Day – Race 10 – Lunch Special (7)

It will be interesting to see what this dog is paying on the tote.  The bookies have it as a loose favourite at $3 but I suspect with its picket fence formline there may be more money on it come start time.

So why bet against a dog that has won 6 straight races?

First this is another rise in class – it’s his first crack at C3 and less than a month ago he was running around in C0 maidens.  On the other hand a couple of dogs today are downgrading from C4 races last start.

This is reflected in his best rating for the course and distance – it’s actually the slowest of all runners.

Neither has he has he dominated the starts – only twice has he lead at the opening marker and up in class he will face dogs who are quicker off the mark.  To be fair, he’s won both his starts from box 7 to date and there’s not a lot of box speed in the race.

Still, there’s a number of flags which makes Lunch Special our lay of the day.  With Lunch Special the likely favourite and punters liking the formline, there could be value about the dog in red – Bigtime Flyer – and particularly Bigtime Caleb.  If Caleb can get a reasonable start in particular, he’s run the times to win this.

If this was snooker, I’d by hanging up my cue for a while!  After last week, it was asking a little much for lightning to strike again but it worked out pretty much as predicted.  It was a fair effort by Lunch Special but he did miss the start and especially once Caleb was up on the pace, he was never going to win.  The added bonus was the great each way on Big Time Caleb.  Hope you got some!

David