This is a first of what will become a semi-regular feature where we discuss the speed map for an upcoming black type race.
Along the way we hope to help subscribers and visitors to the site to get a better understanding of speed maps and how they can be used as part of analysing form.
Today’s focus is the Group One Captain Cook Stakes which will be run at Trentham’s Champagne turf on Saturday, 9 December.
Speed Map Lessons From the Past
Seeing this is the first speed watch for racing, it’s worthwhile going back in time to see what happened in the 2015 running to the Captain Cook Stakes, which also featured Kawi.
The speed map clearly showed that two horses were likely to be on the pace and that there was likely to be little pressure on the leaders. So we could have had a reasonable guess who would lead and more so that if it panned out the way the speed map suggested, there wouldn’t be a lot of pace ie a slow to medium tempo.
In fact, the two horses predicted to lead got an easy lead and literally walked, turning the race into a sprint from the 600-800 metres. This made it tough for the back markers including Kawi. The first two into the straight were the first two home.
Speed Map – Captain Cook Stakes 2015
Predicted Speed Map
There are interesting similarities with the race 2 years ago.
Again, two runners (including Authentic Paddy) map to lead with Paddy and Miss Wilson likely to cross over from the outside barriers and take on the pacemaking roles.
Coldplay is likely to get a nice site on the rail in behind the two leaders and is the only other runner who has shown a tendency to race on our near the pace. Jonathan Parkes, who stole the 2015 edition on Julinsky Prince rides Cold Play and it will be fascinating to see how he reads this race.
The favourite Kawi maps to get back but his style is generally to settle midfield or further back and then storm down the outer. This was exactly what Jason Waddell was able to do for Kawi’s last Group One win at Otaki back in February. Waddell is on again.
Another runner worth discussing is Chocante. The 1600m may be a little short of his best but he has shown the ability to win races from in behind the leaders. Danielle Johnson will need to consider whether to follow the two likely leaders from the outside barriers or from gate 7 jag back to the rear. With the likely slow tempo, you would think there is a chance she will opt to ride him handy.
Barrier and Position Stats
While our stats aren’t complete yet, a couple of points worth noting.
First, barriers 7-9 have a very strong record of wins with a higher strike rate than any of the inside gates.
And second, as you would expect from a course like Trentham, winners come from everyone over the 1600m. That said, 30% of winners have led or been in the trail.